I notice that the SNP via Nicola Sturgeon has raised the issue of currency once again in the independence debate. She states confidently in this article that following a yes vote, Scotland would continue to use Sterling as the country’s currency.
This is in fact a can of worms on several levels. How will this square with the EU? The UK’s opt out will remain with the successor state, which has already been acknowledged by the EU President and the European Commission as being the ‘Remaining UK’ i.e. England Wales and Northern Ireland.
Given that the EU have said that Scotland will be treated as a new state, then the UK opt out on the Euro will not apply. Any new state coming into the EU is obliged to join the Euro once criteria are met so I wonder where this leaves Scotland should we vote for independence?
Quite apart from all that, even if this problem could be overcome and Scotland was allowed to keep Sterling by the EU, wouldn’t monetary policy still be decided in London? And given that the acknowledged main problem of the Euro has been differing fiscal policies within a single currency, and given that Sterling already has particular problems, how would this play out on a small island with a small currency but within it separate fiscal policy?
There is some comfort for the Yes campaign from economist Professor John Kay who states that the EU “would probably settle for some vague and indefinitely postponed aspiration” that Scotland would adopt the euro.
However Kay also believes that “The currency issue is crucial – Scotland would be right to seek agreement on monetary union with the remaining United Kingdom, but it would be difficult to negotiate an agreement that would be consistent with the fiscal freedom sought through independence.
“Scotland should be ready to adopt an independent currency.”
So the SNP want to keep the pound and the Queen. They say that Scotland will be free of Trident and yet even if the vote is yes, there is no guarantee that a future Scottish government would follow that through. I’ve always wondered that even if that government were SNP, if they wouldn’t come to some arrangement with the Remaining UK on the issue.
As someone who has voted SNP in recent years, when it became clear that there was to be a referendum, I looked forward to being convinced that independence made sense.
At the moment I remain to be convinced.
And the clock is ticking….
Filed under: Politics, Scotland | Tagged: euro, nicola sturgeon, scottish independence, scottish independence referendum, sterling | 2 Comments »