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Gray to Fade?

I was just reading about the opinion poll conducted by Panelbase the other day as to voting intentions for the Scottish election on May 5th.

I’m not actually surprised that the SNP has rallied and now appears to be in the lead. The majority of folk I speak to think they’ve done a pretty reasonable job over the past four years.

The Scotland Votes predictor translates the results into 54 seats for the SNP (+7), Labour 52 (+6), Conservatives 12 (-5), Lib Dems 8 (-8) and Greens 3 (+1). Earlier polls suggested Labour was heading for victory. The collapse of the Condem vote would seem to be a reaction to their last year in power at Westminster.

However the most alarming reading for all the parties, with the exception of the SNP must be the following:

The poll suggests 44 per cent are satisfied with Mr Salmond’s performance as first minister, while 26 per cent are dissatisfied, giving him an approval rating of +18.

Mr Gray has an approval rating of minus 16. Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott’s approval rating is -25 while Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader, is on -17.

Let’s just think about that -”Approval rating of minus 16, minus 17 and minus 25″

I decided to check the definition of “Approval rating” and found this:

“Approval ratings were introduced by George Gallup in the late 1930s (probably 1937) to gauge public support for the president during his presidency. An approval rating is a percentage determined by a polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Most often an approval rating is given to a political figure based on responses to a poll in which a sample of people are asked whether they approve or disapprove of that particular political figure.”

Ah! so therefore Eck has an approval rating and the other three leaders have a disapproval rating.

As if that all weren’t bad enough for the First Minister in waiting, this article in The Sun highlights that three out of four voters don’t even know who the Gray man is!!

The rascally reporters publish the following photo and caption:

Reading further, 15% would appear not to know who Eck is!!

15% of voters don't know who this is*

For the Scots amongst you, just think on that as you walk down the street today. More than one in ten folk don’t have a scoob who the First Minister of their country is!

And that Iain Gray could walk down your local high street, attracting nary a glance, except for the one in four folk who actually do know who he is.

And they would presumably be slinging him a disapproving look.

Eck with his knowledge of turf sport probably wasn’t too concerned to be trailing at the start of the campaign. He’ll be equally aware that cuddies can up the pace and take the lead too soon.

He’ll not be so naive to think that the old gray nag couldn’t once again become a dark horse but the SNP have the air of the punter gripping that betting slip a bit tighter and willing their (s)election home.

*’Shreck’ by Stu Who?